When NBC News colors in a state or district red or blue on election night, that’s because the NBC News Decision Desk has determined it can project a winner in that race. Here’s how NBC News projects winners, the steps it takes to verify results and the answers to some frequently asked questions about the process.
How does NBC News project the outcomes of races?
On Nov. 5, the Decision Desk will project 610 races across all 50 states, from the presidential election to statewide and congressional contests.
Projecting a winner means that the Decision Desk has determined that the trailing candidates cannot catch the leader and that the leading candidate will win the race. This determination is made through a comprehensive analysis, and the Decision Desk only projects a race when it is certain of the outcome.
Early on election night, the Decision Desk uses exit poll data to determine whether it can project uncompetitive races. Competitive races are called based on analyses of precinct- and county-level vote returns. The analyses also examine differences between early and Election Day votes. In competitive contests, a careful analysis of how much of the vote has not been counted is a crucial part of the process. To reiterate, no race is projected until the Decision Desk is fully confident of the winner.
NBC News will not project a winner until after the last scheduled statewide poll-closing time in that race.
What kinds of calls and characterizations does the Decision Desk make?
Here are the key Decision Desk calls and characterizations our audience can expect to hear from NBC News on election night:
Too early to call: This characterization covers two scenarios. The first is that there might be a significant margin for one of the candidates, but we have not yet met our statistical standards to project the race. The second is that there is not enough data to determine the margin with certainty.
Too close to call: This characterization means the final margin between the candidates will be less than 5 percentage points. This determination is made through statistical evaluation, not raw vote counts. That’s because raw vote counts can sometimes be misleading in determining the closeness of a race depending upon which votes have been counted. For example, if a race is tied in the raw vote count but the only places left with uncounted votes typically lean heavily toward one party, the race could easily end up being less competitive than the raw vote count seems in that moment.
The Decision Desk will not use this characterization until we have statistical confidence that the race will be this close.
Leaning: The Decision Desk will issue a leaning characterization when it is confident that the candidate who is ahead is going to win, but the race may take some time before it reaches our standards for a call. It will be used when a race has stabilized but the statistical threshold for calling a race has not been met.
Projected winner: NBC News has made a projection that a candidate will win the race.
How will NBC News call control of the Senate?
When a party has gained a majority of seats in the Senate — 51 for an outright majority or 50 seats plus the tie-breaking vice presidency — the Decision Desk will project control for that party.
How will NBC News call control of the House?
When a party has gained a majority of 218 seats in the House, the Decision Desk will project control for that party.
NBC News is part of the National Election Pool. What does that mean?
The National Election Pool, or NEP, is a consortium of major news networks — ABC, CBS, CNN and NBC — that pools resources to gather vote data and exit poll data. The NEP works with the consumer research firm Edison Research to collect timely and comprehensive election data on Election Day and in the following days, weeks and months until results are certified by all states. The NEP licenses data to several news outlets, including Reuters and The Washington Post.
How are votes counted?
The NEP hires “data reporters,” or “stringers,” who are trained to go to specific county and precinct locations to collect election vote results from local election officials. These data reporters are at polling locations before the polls open and long after the polls close. Other sources for election vote data include state and county vote computer feeds and websites, when they are available.
What is an exit poll?
Using probability-based sampling methods, which allow us to scientifically reach a representative group of voters in a state or the nation, the exit poll is a survey of voters conducted as they exit their polling places, as well as via phone for voters who cast ballots early or by mail. It is the only survey measure of real voters on Election Day, and it is conducted in over 600 polling places across the country.
In-person Election Day voters will be interviewed as they leave their polling places. The exit poll also includes extensive interviews with in-person early voters and telephone surveys of early and absentee voters. About 20,000 interviews will be conducted.
One use of the exit poll is to help analysts determine if an uncompetitive race can be projected. The primary use of the exit poll, however, is to help viewers understand voter attitudes on a variety of issues. The exit poll results answer important questions about candidate support, policy issues and cultural and economic issues, and they explain who voters are and what motivated them to vote.
What are the steps taken to gather and report election data to make a call?
1. Data reporters (see above) and interviewers in the field collect the results.
On Election Day, the NEP will collect vote totals in all 50 states for statewide races, ballot measures and all 435 House races. About 1,125 interviewers will be working for NBC News through the NEP to collect county- and precinct-level votes and to conduct exit polls.
NBC News also supplements the data collected by the NEP through its own effort to collect turnout data and precinct-level vote returns.
2. Multiple sources provide vote results throughout Election Day.
Data comes in through multiple sources on Election Day, with data reporters and interviewers across the country calling in results on a timely and rolling basis all day long. Vote data is also collected through state and county websites and feeds.
3. Data is checked for accuracy.
Vote results are rigorously checked and verified. Part of quality control involves checking that vote data is consistent across sources, and we also compare the vote to past election results to see whether the turnout looks extremely different across multiple past races. The Decision Desk vote count analysts, along with computer software, trigger quality control alerts, and senior team members review any vote totals that fail the quality control check.
4. NBC News independently analyzes the data.
NBC News race projections are completely independent of those of other news outlets. The Decision Desk independently analyzes vote data and exit poll data and uses proprietary statistical models, as well as a team of experts — most of whom have doctorates in data analytics, polling, election administration and political science — to interpret the results to decide when races can be projected.
5. Results and projections are delivered quickly.
Election Day vote data is made available as quickly as possible. Vote counting will continue in several states for several days. Exit poll results are independently analyzed in real time, and NBC News calls all races as soon as the Decision Desk is fully confident in the winner.
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