Why Trump voters are poised to swing the Senate majority: From the Politics Desk

Welcome to the online version of From the Politics Desk, an evening newsletter that brings you the NBC News Politics team’s latest reporting and analysis from the campaign trail, the White House and Capitol Hill.

In today’s edition, Capitol Hill coverage veterans Ryan Nobles and Frank Thorp V report from Montana on Donald Trump’s voters will decide whether Sen. Jon Tester wins another term — and whether Democrats can hang onto their Senate majority. Plus, “Meet the Press” moderator breaks down the polling numbers behind Barack Obama’s stern message to Black voters.

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Jon Tester pushes for ticket-splitters in a Montana Senate race that appears to be slipping away

By Ryan Nobles and Frank Thorp V

BUTTE, Mont. — Tim Combo arrived at the second-floor union hall of the Western States Carpenters here Wednesday covered in dust and grime from a day spent on the job. Combo, a 27-year union carpenter, feels deeply that the election will directly affect his life — and he has made his choice. 

 “I came up here to vote for Jon Tester, and I am going to vote for Donald Trump, as well,” Combo said at the hall, where Tester was speaking.

Combo represents the best hope for Tester, a Democrat, to win a fourth term in the Senate in deep-red Montana — and with it, the possibility that Democrats will maintain a slim majority in the chamber. But ticket-splitters like him are becoming less common with every passing election in a polarized U.S., giving Republicans a good chance of capturing the majority in the Senate this fall.

Poll after poll indicates Tester is running behind Republican Tim Sheehy, a wealthy businessman and retired Navy SEAL, though by smaller margins than Vice President Kamala Harris trails Trump at the top of the ticket.

Tester, who has defied the odds before, said he believes union halls like the one he spoke at Wednesday night represent the deep connection he has with the people of his state.  

“Look, I’ve got my own brand here in the state, and it’s different than national Democrats,” he said in an interview. “I would have never been elected the first time or any other times if it had been the same as a national Democrat.”

But Tester’s campaign is making an aggressive pitch to convince Montana’s Trump voters that it’s worth keeping him around because of the specific issues he has worked on to benefit the state. In the Butte union hall, Tester touted his work to make sure billions of dollars for infrastructure projects appropriated in 2022 would create union jobs. The mostly male group packing the hall, many of whom Tester concedes will vote for Trump, cheered loudly. 

Tester, who twice voted to convict Trump on impeachment charges, has promised he could work with Trump and even listed issues on which they agree. 

“We probably agree on the Second Amendment. We probably agree on the southern border. We, I mean, there’s a number of things, yes, yeah,” he said. 

Read more from Ryan and Frank → 

Silver State dispatch: Staying out west, Nevada is hosting a Senate race that is a must-win for Democrats and could dictate the size of a potential majority for the GOP. 

Bridget Bowman reports from Las Vegas that some Republicans worry it may be too late for GOP candidate Sam Brown to close the polling gap with Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen, even as the presidential race in the battleground state remains tight.  

Read more from Bridget →

The poll numbers behind Obama’s warning to Black men

By Kristen Welker

The most popular man remaining in Democratic politics officially hit the campaign trail for Vice President Kamala Harris in the final sprint to Election Day.

Former President Barack Obama came to Pittsburgh on Thursday with a stark warning for Black men to step up their support for Harris.

“We have not seen the same kinds of energy and turnout in all quarters of our neighborhoods and communities as we saw when I was running. Now, I also want to say that that seems to be more pronounced with the brothers,” Obama told a group of volunteers before his rally appearance, according to a pool report.

“Part of it makes me think that, well, you just aren’t feeling the idea of having a woman as president, and you’re coming up with other alternatives and other reasons for that,” he said. “You’re coming up with all kinds of reasons and excuses. I’ve got a problem with that.”

He called on them to “speak to people on the sidelines” and urge them not to consider “sitting out or supporting somebody who has a history of denigrating you because you think that’s a sign of strength.”

“Because that’s what being a man is? Putting women down?” Obama told them. “That’s not acceptable.”

What’s behind this warning? 

Recent polling in swing states from the Howard University Initiative on Public Opinion showed that while Harris held a commanding lead over former President Donald Trump with Black voters overall, there were notable divides when the results were broken down by age and gender.

 The survey found that men under the age of 50 were the most likely subgroup of Black voters to back Trump over Harris. While Harris had a 78-point lead among Black men over 50, the number drops to about 50 points with Black men under 50.

Bottom line: This is the first time we have heard this powerful and direct plea from the nation’s first Black president to other Black men. The question is: Will it resonate and move this critical constituency to more enthusiastically support Harris in the closing weeks of the campaign?

That’s all from the Politics Desk for now. If you have feedback — likes or dislikes — email us at [email protected]

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