Meet the voters who skipped the last election but are jumping in this time: From the Politics Desk

Welcome to the online version of From the Politics Desk, an evening newsletter that brings you the NBC News Politics team’s latest reporting and analysis from the campaign trail, the White House and Capitol Hill.

In today’s edition, national political reporter Ben Kamisar breaks down our latest focus group of voters who did not participate in the last election but plan to this time around. Plus, “Meet the Press” moderator Kristen Welker previews Kamala Harris’ trip to Texas.

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Voters who sat out 2020 weigh whether to jump in for Trump or Harris this time

By Ben Kamisar

A new focus group of voters who plan to cast ballots this fall — but didn’t in 2020 — illustrates how both Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are leaning on a core message to try to expand the electorate in a close race.

Among these voters, Harris gets a boost because they believe she would protect abortion rights, and some have broader hopes that electing the first female president could send a strong message to the country. But she’s weighed down by a number of factors: a dim diagnosis of America’s economy, negative views about life during President Joe Biden’s administration and a lack of familiarity with her, which has bred ambivalence and distrust.

It’s different for Trump, one of the best-known political figures on the planet. Some of these voters believe his conduct during his time in office has disqualified him in their eyes, and even some of his supporters fear he’d focus more in a second term on fighting his enemies than on governing. 

Still, a majority of the 12 participants in two sessions — part of the NBC News Deciders Focus Group, produced in collaboration with Syracuse University and the research firms Engagious and Sago — are leaning toward Trump for the oldest reason in politics: It’s the economy.

“I am getting older, and the economy is really starting to hit us hard, as well. Just in inflation and costs and the job market, all these things are actually starting to impact me and my family, so it’s definitely feeling like it’s more important this year,” said Ashley S., 34, of Clayton, North Carolina, who said she’s leaning toward Trump — but isn’t positive she’ll end up voting. 

James B., 56, of Las Vegas, called the choice “simple.” He didn’t vote in 2020 because he was moving, but he plans to vote this year.

“My financial situation has declined repeatedly,” he said, adding that “it’s getting close to not being able to survive. I was better off when he was in as the president.”

Rich Thau, the president of Engagious, who moderated the sessions, said, “Most of these voters who sat out 2020 will vote for Trump this year because they believe he can make the 2025 economy look like the low-inflation 2019 economy.”

Read more from our latest focus group →

Why Beyoncé, Texas and the abortion issue are so important for Harris

By Kristen Welker

Vice President Kamala Harris is traveling to Houston this evening. And while Texas is not a swing state, her trip is still noteworthy for several reasons.  

Texas, after all, features a key Senate contest that gives Democrats a fighting (but uphill) chance to flip that seat and keep control of the chamber. 

It also represents a continued Democratic dream to turn the Lone Star State blue in presidential contests, although Joe Biden still lost it by more than 5 points in 2020. 

Oh, and Beyoncé will be in her native city and is expected to perform at the Harris event. 

But maybe more than anything else, Harris’ trip to Texas is noteworthy because of the issue she’ll be emphasizing there: abortion. 

As NBC News reports, Harris is set to deliver an address on reproductive rights, highlighting the state-level abortion bans enacted since Roe v. Wade was overturned. 

Our latest NBC News poll shows why abortion is such a critical issue for Harris: It’s the top motivating issue for voters, especially younger women. 

Polling consistently finds inflation and the cost of living as voters’ top overall issue. But when our October poll asked the question a different way — Is there one issue you feel so strongly about that you will vote for or against a candidate solely on that basis? — abortion jumped to the top with 22% of registered voters saying it was their No. 1 motivating issue.

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That includes 34% of women ages 18-49, and 27% of women 50 and older. 

Add it all up, and Texas is quite important for Harris.

That’s all from the Politics Desk for now. If you have feedback — likes or dislikes — email us at [email protected]

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