Like many visa-holding immigrants, a 24-year-old Ph.D. student in upstate New York said she lives in a constant state of anxiety. The student, who asked to be anonymous out of fear of retaliation, is currently on an F-1 student visa and worries that if she leaves the country even on a vacation, she might not be let back in, that her status might suddenly change.
With President-elect Donald Trump preparing to retake office with a crew of Cabinet members with anti-legal immigration platforms, she now has an additional worry: it might be impossible for her to get on a more permanent H-1B, a visa for specialized occupations, when she graduates.
“I am anxious to know how and what changes he ends up making,” the student said. “In four years, the world could be literally at 180 degrees.”
Following Trump’s re-election victory, many immigrants are worried a second Trump term would introduce restrictions on the H-1B visa program, like he attempted to do during his first term. Trump himself, his allies and Cabinet picks have made promises to make cuts to the program, which experts say would have a huge impact on the tech sector.
“People are in a state of panic … they are expecting the worst,” said Shakeel Syed, executive director of the nonprofit South Asian Network. “‘Is my application going to be accepted? During the course of my approval process, where do I stand? Can I be deported?”
The H-1B, or high-skill visa program, is overwhelmingly used by Indians. They make up about 75% of all petitioners, far outpacing even the next highest group, Chinese workers, who make up under 12%.
While the visa program can encompass any field that requires a bachelor’s degree or higher, the tech industry makes up the vast majority and would face the most severe impacts of increased restrictions.
Stephen Miller, who is joining Trump’s White House as deputy chief of staff for policy, is expected to be a leader in the administration’s immigration agenda. During his previous role as a senior adviser, Miller took staunch-anti-immigration stances and influenced policy that raised H-1B denials and tightened restrictions on the program.
“Stephen Miller has been very effective in the previous administration in cutting down immigration numbers,” said Gaurav Khanna, an assistant professor of economics and an immigration scholar at the University of California, San Diego.
The Trump transition team did not respond to a request for comment on behalf of Trump or Miller.
Other allies like Vivek Ramaswamy, nominated alongside Elon Musk to lead a new Department of Government Efficiency, has in the past said he would “gut” the H-1B program if given the chance.
Ramaswamy’s representatives did not respond to a request for comment.
Trump himself has shared that opinion. Answering a question about H-1Bs during a 2016 Republican presidential debate, he said, “We shouldn’t have it. Very, very bad for workers.”
What action has the federal government taken in the past?
Immigration experts say that while only Congress can’t set visa caps, the federal government can make the processes for visa applications slower and more difficult.
The first Trump administration increased wage requirements for H-1B applicants beyond what citizens working in those sectors would earn, impacting entry-level workers. The rule was eventually shot down by a federal judge in 2020, but it caused tech companies to scramble, according to immigration law firm Berry Appleman & Leiden.
Trump’s Department of Homeland Security also attempted to narrow the definition of a “specialty occupation” that qualified for an H-1B. That was also shot down in court.
“They do have the power to heavily audit firms and make life very difficult for companies that are hiring H-1B workers,” Khanna said. “The tech sector is heavily reliant on H-1B workers. If you cut off that supply, the tech sector is going to be unhappy.”
During the 2016 presidential debate, Trump admitted he had hired H-1B workers himself. At his Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida, Trump also regularly hires immigrant workers, sponsoring H-2A visas to bring in seasonal employees.
“It’s something that I frankly use and I shouldn’t be allowed to use it,” he said. “I’m a businessman and I have to do what I have to do.”
A possible chilling effect, at minimum
While she waits for answers about her place in the U.S., the Ph.D. student from upstate New York says she’s worried that anti-immigrant sentiment will make her life difficult no matter what her status is.
“My defenses are always up,” she said.
Khanna and Syed both said that anti-immigrant rhetoric from the Trump administration might, by itself, be an effective tool at creating an H-1B chilling effect at companies who normally sponsor these visa-holders. While it would dent the tech sector, everyday South Asians working in the U.S. would be targeted, despite their immigration status.
“That anti-Asian phobia, anti immigrant phobia is going to be impactful in spite of having full legal status,” Syed said.
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