Republicans still haven’t found their footing on the abortion issue: From the Politics Desk

Welcome to the online version of From the Politics Desk, an evening newsletter that brings you the NBC News Politics team’s latest reporting and analysis from the campaign trail, the White House and Capitol Hill.

In today’s edition, we examine how Republican candidates in key races are still struggling to find their message on abortion. Plus, chief political analyst Chuck Todd asks whether Kamala Harris can keep winning the battle to define herself in the final weeks of the race.

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Two years after the end of Roe, abortion is still tripping up Republicans in key races

By Bridget Bowman, Adam Edelman and Henry J. Gomez

Republicans are still struggling to navigate the issue of abortion as they face a barrage of Democratic attacks, with Ohio GOP Senate hopeful Bernie Moreno’s latest comments — suggesting it isn’t an issue “especially for women that are, like, past 50” — underscoring the party’s continuing challenges.

The GOP is confident about taking control of the Senate this year, thanks to a path to the majority that runs through red states. But some Republicans warn that comments like Moreno’s aren’t helpful as he tries to defeat a well-known senator in Ohio, Democrat Sherrod Brown.

“Bernie oof,” one Republican who works on Senate races texted after the Moreno story broke this week. “Honestly I think Bernie is heading in the right direction but handed Sherrod an opening with that.” 

Democrats have been hammering Republicans across the country on the abortion issue. In the seven most competitive Senate races, Democratic campaigns and outside groups launched 33 TV ads about abortion just in the last week, according to the ad-tracking firm AdImpact. Just one Republican ad, a Spanish-language spot from an outside group targeting Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen of Nevada, mentioned abortion. 

Democrats successfully deployed a similar strategy in 2022, when they defied expectations and kept control of the Senate despite President Joe Biden’s poor approval ratings. Some Republicans warned that the party’s failure to counter abortion attacks cost them crucial seats that year. 

In 2022, exit polling found Democrats had an 11-point advantage on the issue of abortion. The latest NBC News national poll finds a majority of voters (54%) say Vice President Kamala Harris would deal with the issue better, while 33% say the same of former President Donald Trump. It was one of Harris’ top scores on a slate of issues tested in the survey.

The challenge for the GOP, Republican strategist Gail Gitcho said, “is not falling into the same trap of what happened in 2022. And what happened in 2022 was Republicans didn’t do anything to respond on abortion. Nothing.” 

GOP Senate candidates have been slow to proactively talk about the issue so far.

Just three candidates in targeted Senate seats — Nevada’s Sam Brown, Pennsylvania’s Dave McCormick and Maryland’s Larry Hogan — have launched TV ads captured by AdImpact that mention abortion. All of them feature the candidates saying that they wouldn’t support a federal ban. Sen. Rick Scott of Florida also launched an ad pledging to protect in vitro fertilization.

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Are we at peak Kamala Harris?

By Chuck Todd

Depending on the numbers you choose to consume, it’s safe to say the race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris is somewhere between toss-up and lean-Harris. Since their only debate, there hasn’t been a poll released — even polls with Trump ahead — showing anything other than improvement for Harris and problems for Trump.  

In particular, Harris has closed the gap on Trump’s key issue advantages on the economy and the border. While Trump is still seen as stronger on those issues, his leads over Harris are lower than they were when voters were comparing him and President Joe Biden.  

Take the poll that I have the most confidence in: the NBC News survey overseen and conducted jointly by the bipartisan team of Republican Bill McInturff of Public Opinion Strategies and Democrat Jeff Horwitt of Hart Research. Harris has also flipped some personal attribute questions that were negatives for Biden — like questions about having the ability to be president or having the mental and physical capacity for the job. 

Then there’s the issue of abortion rights. While it was an asset for Biden in polling against Trump, it appears to be a much bigger advantage for Harris. For instance, the NBC News poll showed her leading by more than 40 percentage points among white women with college degrees, a group of voters Biden won in 2020 but by a significantly smaller margin.

Now, it isn’t all gains for Harris. The big change in the Trump electorate both from 2016 to 2020 and this time around is his level of support among Latino voters. In 2016, Trump lost the Hispanic vote by nearly 40 points, according to the exit poll. In the 2020 exit poll, he lost that group by just over 30 points. And in this new NBC poll, Harris’ advantage was just under 20 points.

At this point, it’s safe to say we have a good idea how the vote is going to break down demographically. What we don’t know is how intense the turnout will be among the various groups. 

For most of this short campaign, I’d be describing this race as “Trump’s to lose, but Trump is losing it.” Now, I’d describe the race as a jump ball with a slight advantage to Harris, simply because she has room to grow still.

But it’s still a race to define Harris with the remaining undecideds. So far, Harris is winning the battle to define herself. Can she keep that up for five more weeks?

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That’s all from the Politics Desk for now. If you have feedback — likes or dislikes — email us at [email protected]

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