Welcome to the online version of From the Politics Desk, an evening newsletter that brings you the NBC News Politics team’s latest reporting and analysis from the campaign trail, the White House and Capitol Hill.
In today’s edition, national political reporter Ben Kamisar breaks down the latest installment of the NBC News Deciders Focus Group series, which featured young men from battleground states who are skeptical of both candidates. Plus, senior political reporter Jonathan Allen and senior Capitol Hill correspondent examine how Democrats managed to avoid a major electoral vote change in Nebraska.
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For him or against him, young men see the election as all about Trump
By Ben Kamisar
New focus groups of skeptical young men planning to vote in this fall’s most critical battleground states illustrate how, for them, this election is all about Donald Trump.
A total of 15 men under the age of 30 from Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — for whom the former president has been the dominant figure in politics and culture since they were teens, if not earlier — participated in conversations as part of the NBC News Deciders Focus Group, produced in collaboration with Syracuse University and the research firms Engagious and Sago.
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Here’s what we learned:
Focus group one: Harris leaners
All of the seven young, male voters who said they were leaning toward Harris described their choice as more of a vote against Trump than a demonstration of support for the Democratic nominee.
Three from Pennsylvania used the term “lesser of two evils” to describe their choice, while another said he was choosing who would “enact less damage.”
“Kamala Harris is a step in the right direction, even if it is a small step. I extremely dislike MAGA politics, and a lot of the Republican Party is basically that extremeness, and I dislike it a lot,” 23-year-old John M. said. “It does kind of fall into the lesser of the two evils, but I feel like there’s a little bit more promise with her.”
Focus group two: Trump leaners
By contrast, among the eight men under 30 who were leaning toward Trump, four said they are proactively supporting the GOP nominee, while the other four said they are primarily opposing Harris.
Those who described their vote as affirmative support for Trump reminisced about the “prosperity” and “stability” they associate with his tenure in the White House.
“Selfishly speaking, my life was better back when he was in office than currently, both monetarily-wise, I think geopolitical wise, things like that. And also I just feel like I trust him more,” said Drake L., a 27-year-old from Philadelphia.
The battle for young voters
Polling has shown a significant gender gap in the presidential race, with Trump holding the upper hand among men and Harris with women. And while Democrats have long performed better with younger voters, the gender gap persists with that group, too. This month’s NBC News Stay Tuned Gen Z Poll powered by SurveyMonkey found Harris leading among women under 30 by a much wider margin, 30 points, than her 4-point edge over Trump among young men (within the margin of error).
The two campaigns have been vocal about their attempts to win over young men — Trump through the world of influencers and combat sports, and Harris through targeted ads and the refrain about vice presidential nominee Tim Walz’s past as an assistant football coach. And considering these voters reside in swing states regularly decided by a small number of voters, the ultimate margin among these young, male voters could prove pivotal.
Read more from our focus groups →
Harris may have locked down her first electoral vote this week
By Jonathan Allen and Garrett Haake
In a wild election season, the story of Nebraska’s Omaha-based 2nd Congressional District has been one of the most compelling subplots.
The district is highly competitive turf in one of just two states — Maine is the other — that awards an elector to the candidate who wins the most votes in each congressional district. With recent presidential elections turning on tens of thousands of votes spread across a few states, there are scenarios in which Nebraska’s 2nd District could determine who wins the Electoral College.
That’s why Trump made a full-court press to get Nebraska to change its law to give all of the electors to the statewide winner — he took 58.5% statewide in 2020. But his effort came up short this week when Republican state Sen. Mike McDonnell — a former Democrat — said he would not back the plan.
As intense as the GOP lobbying effort was — Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., a close Trump ally, traveled to the state to make the pitch for changing the law — Democrats’ counteroffensive proved more effective.
Jane Kleeb, chairwoman of the Nebraska Democratic Party, told NBC News she leaned on her 18-year relationship with McDonnell to lobby him. So did other Democrats and thought leaders in the state. They also pointed to the lawn signs and other symbols of enthusiasm for the Harris campaign in the city.
Spending in the district has been lopsided, according to figures from the tracking firm AdImpact, with Democrats doling out $6.7 million on ads in Nebraska since Harris became her party’s standard-bearer, compared with $170,000 for Republicans.
McDonnell was presented with the findings of a private Democratic poll of the district that outlined just how much his chances of winning a prospective race next year for mayor of Omaha — a city that leans more heavily Democratic than the larger district — improved if he didn’t go along with Trump.
A second private poll, conducted by Republicans and shared with NBC News by a source familiar with its findings, shows why Trump was so eager to change the rules — and why Democrats have reason to be confident about Harris’ chances of taking the 2nd District’s electoral vote. That poll has Harris up by 9 percentage points over Trump. (Joe Biden won the district by less than 7 points in 2020.)
The ad wars are largely about defining Harris
By Ben Kamsiar
More than half of every dollar spent on ads in the presidential race from Sept. 1 to Sept. 20 were spent in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin — with Pennsylvania alone drawing 1 of every 4 dollars spent, according to AdImpact. Add Georgia, and it’s more than 60% of the total.
The spending illustrates how Democrats and Republicans are in broad agreement about the states in play and how one side or the other will win the election. And what those ad dollars are actually buying tells a key story about the campaign.
Kamala Harris’ campaign is running an equal mix of positive and negative ads on broadcast TV, while Donald Trump’s campaign is running almost exclusively negative and contrast ads — a demonstration of how focused voters and both campaigns are on defining the vice president as she runs against a three-time candidate who has inspired entrenched views among American voters.
“It’s simple: Everyone has made up their mind about Donald Trump. Trump’s numbers are the stickiest things in politics; they don’t move,” said Alex Conant, a Republican strategist and presidential campaign veteran.
“What’s movable is Harris — we’ve seen a lot of movement in her numbers since she entered the race,” Conant continued, noting the dramatic increase in Harris’ favorability numbers since she took over as the Democratic Party’s presidential candidate.
🗞️ Today’s top stories
- 🚨 Now you’re in New York: New York City Mayor Eric Adams has been hit with five federal charges — including wire fraud, bribery and solicitation of a contribution by a foreign national — according to a sprawling 57-page federal indictment unsealed Thursday. Read more →
- 📺 Ad wars: After Sen. Sherrod Brown and his allies enjoyed an ad spending advantage all spring and for much of the summer, Republican Bernie Moreno and the outside groups backing him have outspent the Democrats 2-to-1 on the airwaves in Ohio’s Senate race this month. Read more →
- 📺 Ad wars, cont.: The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee announced that it is making a multimillion-dollar investment in TV ads in the Texas and Florida Senate races. Read more →
- ✈️ Flying south: Harris on Friday is set to make her first visit to the southern border since becoming the Democratic nominee. Read more →
- 🍟 Supersize me: Harris again confirmed during an interview with MSNBC’s Stephanie Ruhle that she once worked at McDonald’s, pushing back against Trump’s claims she never worked there. Read more →
- 🖥️ Deepfake: Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Ben Cardin was targeted by a caller who posed as a former top Ukrainian official during a recent Zoom call. Read more →
- 🙅 ‘Not accurate’: The Republican mayor of Aurora, Colorado, said he wants Trump to visit the city to show him his depictions of migrants there are false. Read more →
- ⛔ Wrong way: The latest NBC News national poll found that nearly two-thirds (65%) of voters said the country is on the wrong track, while 28% said it was on the right track. Read more →
- 🗒️ Woman to woman: A loose-knit group of women are organizing online to post pro-Harris sticky notes wherever women may see them — from bathroom stalls and mirrors to the backs of tampon boxes. Read more →
- Follow live updates from the campaign trail →
That’s all from the Politics Desk for now. If you have feedback — likes or dislikes — email us at [email protected]
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