When’s the best time to buy toys, TVs and other hot items?

Figuring out when to buy gifts for the holidays can be an endless source of stress: Is it better to scoop up purchases early, launch into action around the big Thanksgiving sales events, or wait until the last minute? To help answer those questions, NBC News is tracking the online prices of five popular holiday gifts in major categories through the end of the year.

We evaluated products from kitchen appliances and TVs to Bluetooth headphones, toys and shoes, zeroing in on five that are likely to be bestsellers in their categories, according to experts at Consumer Reports, Wirecutter and Wired:

General electronics: Apple AirPods Pro 2
Toys: Magna-Tiles
Kitchen appliances: Ninja 12-cup programmable coffee brewer
Apparel and footwear: Reebok Club C sneakers
TVs: TCL 65-inch TV

We’re tracking the prices of these five items on major retail websites — including Amazon, Target, Walmart and others — every week from Amazon’s Prime Day back in July through the holiday shopping period, highlighting when each of them is cheapest.

If these specific items aren’t on your list, it may be worth keeping an eye on them anyway. NBC News found that most major retailers’ promotions follow Amazon’s sales calendar, so if one of the products we’re tracking drops in price, it could signal declines for similar ones in the broader category.

Where NBC News is monitoring prices

AirPods Pro 2: Amazon, Walmart, Target, Best Buy, Apple, Keepa (which tracks prices on Amazon)
Magna-Tiles: Amazon, Walmart, Magna-Tiles, Keepa
Ninja coffee brewer: Amazon, Target, Home Depot, Keepa
Reebok Club C’s: Amazon, Walmart, DSW, Zappos, Reebok, Keepa
TCL TV: Amazon, Walmart, Best Buy, Macy’s, TCL, Keepa

For the first time in several years, holiday shoppers are confronting an economy in which inflation has almost entirely slowed to a normal rate, even though many consumers are still adjusting to the higher levels where prices have settled. In a holiday survey the accounting firm PwC shared with NBC News, 59% of consumers said they will likely be influenced by inflation in their shopping decisions.

Even so, consumer sentiment hit a five-month high in September, and overall spending is projected to increase by 7% to an average of $1,638 per shopper this holiday season, per PwC.

Adobe, which tracks e-commerce spending, told NBC News it expects total holiday spending to top $240 billion this year, up 8.4% from last year. Over half of this spending is expected to be driven by electronics, apparel, furniture and home goods.

Adobe forecasts that the deepest discounts this year will be during Cyber Week, which runs from Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday four days after the holiday, but the best time to buy varies by product category.

Thanksgiving Day is expected to be an ideal time to shop for toys, appliances, furniture and sporting goods, Adobe said, whereas Black Friday will have the lowest prices for televisions. Cyber Monday should see some of the steepest discounts on general electronics and apparel, but the best deals for computers are projected to be on Saturday, Nov. 30.

Adobe expects average discounts in the range of 18% to kick off in November with “the best absolute run of pricing across categories to be unlocked on the Friday before Thanksgiving week,” said lead digital analyst Vivek Pandya. After average discounts peak at up to 30% around Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday, Adobe expects them to soften again for the rest of December “but remain relatively favorable for consumers,” Pandya said.

Retailers including Target, Walmart and Best Buy are kicking off early holiday sales in the first week of October. Amazon is hosting a second Prime Day on Oct. 8 and 9. NBC News’ price tracking data shows that Amazon’s July Prime Day had the lowest prices of the year so far for our Bluetooth headphone, kitchen appliance, TV and shoe picks. Similar deals are expected for the upcoming one this month, making it an opportune time to check on deals.

“Early discounts will be quite strong this year, and we’re expecting to see consumers respond more strongly to them than they have in previous years due to increased price sensitivity,” said Pandya.